Campaigning for Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election officially begins Wednesday, putting President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s economic record and the country’s security challenges at the centre of the political contest.
With the election only months away, Tinubu is seeking a second term amid intense public debate over the impact of his economic reforms, rising living costs and persistent insecurity.
The president, who took office in 2023, has introduced major economic policies, most notably the removal of the long-standing fuel subsidy. The government has argued that the reforms were necessary to reduce pressure on public finances and put the economy on a stronger footing.
However, the policies have also placed significant pressure on households, with the naira losing value and inflation rising sharply before beginning to ease.
Headline inflation stood at 15.43 per cent in July, according to the latest figures from the National Bureau of Statistics.
Economy Takes Centre Stage
Analysts say the cost of living is likely to be one of the biggest issues shaping voters’ decisions in the 2027 election.
Afolabi Adekaiyaoja, author of the Bellwether Nigeria politics newsletter, said economic conditions remain an issue affecting Nigerians across different regions.
“The economy is the biggest issue. That’s the one thing that cuts across different parts of the country, and it continues to affect security and development concerns,” he said.
Despite the government’s reform agenda receiving support from some economists and investors, many Nigerians continue to struggle with higher prices for food, transportation, housing and other basic necessities.
The World Bank estimates that more than 60 per cent of Nigerians now live below the poverty line, highlighting the scale of the economic difficulties facing the country.
Security Remains a Major Concern
Beyond the economy, insecurity is expected to feature prominently in the campaigns.
Nigeria continues to face threats from jihadist groups in the northeast, armed bandit gangs in the northwest and north-central regions, communal conflicts involving farmers and herders, as well as separatist tensions in the southeast.
Ladd Serwat, a senior Africa analyst at the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), said violence has increased since 2024, particularly because of the expansion of armed banditry across northern and central Nigeria.
He also pointed to continuing conflict in Borno State, which remains the centre of the country’s long-running jihadist insurgency.
Divided Opposition Gives Tinubu Advantage
While the economic situation presents a major challenge for the president, analysts say divisions within the opposition could work in Tinubu’s favour.
Opposition figures and parties have struggled to maintain a united front, while internal disputes and legal battles have distracted attention from presenting a clear alternative policy platform.
Adekaiyaoja said the opposition had been “too mired in internal and legal issues” to clearly distinguish its policies from those of the Tinubu administration.
The 2027 contest is therefore expected to revolve around whether voters believe Tinubu’s reforms are beginning to produce long-term benefits or whether the immediate hardship facing households should lead to a change in government.
For many voters, the decision may ultimately come down to economic survival.
“The most important issues for me are the economy and cost of living,” said Afolayan Abdullahi, a 42-year-old civil servant who said he planned to vote for Tinubu.
As campaigning begins, political parties and candidates now face the challenge of convincing millions of Nigerians that their policies can address the country’s economic hardship, security problems and broader development needs.
