On Thursday, Zambians will participate in a highly anticipated presidential election that will assess whether recent economic progress can alleviate the widespread frustration over the high cost of living in one of Africa’s most stable democracies.
Hakainde Hichilema, the current president, is up against Brian Mundubile. Once an ally of the late President Edgar Lungu, Mundubile has become a prominent figure within the divided opposition by garnering support from a coalition of competing parties.
Around 8.7 million voters, predominantly women, will determine whether Hichilema’s economic reforms deserve another term or if the opposition can leverage widespread discontent for a resurgence.
Hichilema, the head of the United Party for National Development (UPND), became president in 2021 after five previous attempts. He took over leadership from a country facing sovereign default caused by substantial borrowing during Lungu’s administration. His election victory represented an uncommon peaceful transfer of power to an opposition party through democratic elections in Africa.
Since then, his government achieved a significant debt restructuring agreement, reestablished an International Monetary Fund program, and revitalized economic growth, earning praise from international lenders and investors.
Nevertheless, a significant number of Zambians believe that these advantages have not yet significantly impacted the general population. Issues such as escalating food prices, unemployment, and ongoing poverty continue to be pressing concerns in a nation where over 70% of its citizens survive on less than three dollars daily, according to World Bank data.
“Our progress is recognized globally, but it must translate into local impact,” said 26-year-old medical student Semi Malama.
Zambia ranks as Africa’s second-largest producer of copper, and the government has set a goal to triple production by 2031. Chinese companies are heavily involved in Zambia’s mining industry, underscoring Beijing’s considerable economic influence in the country.
The opposition has taken advantage of household financial pressures, claiming that despite indications of economic recovery, the reforms have failed to enhance living conditions.
Before Mundubile unified the opposition support, Hichilema appeared to have an almost guaranteed path to re-election. However, analysts now indicate that the election has transformed into a direct contest between Hichilema and Mundubile.
Although 14 candidates are officially competing, the primary contenders remain Hichilema and Mundubile, a former minister aged 55. Joseph Siegle from the Africa Center for Strategic Studies observed that “the opposition’s momentum appeals to young people, women, and rural constituents.”
Mundubile aims to solidify backing from Lungu’s strongholds of the Patriotic Front in the north and east. However, he encounters difficulties in broadening his appeal beyond this base because of his late entry into the race and ties to the Lungu era.
With almost 50% of registered voters falling within the 18 to 35 age range, the youth vote has the potential to be decisive.
“The election’s outcome hinges on whether voters believe that maintaining continuity is crucial for consolidating recent progress, or if they prefer change to address the current economic challenges,” stated Zenge Simakoloyi from the Institute for Security Studies.
The campaign has faced issues due to allegations of violence and intimidation. Police have used tear gas to break up confrontations between opposing supporters. Mundubile’s National Republican Party (NRPUP) claims that the authorities have limited their ability to campaign effectively.
Mundubile recently claimed that snipers were present at an event in Mongu, describing such occurrences as “merely the tip of the iceberg.”
Polling stations will open on Thursday at 06:00 local time (04:00 GMT) and close after 12 hours. Additionally, Zambians will vote for an enlarged parliament, with the number of directly elected members increasing from 156 to 226.
The presidential results are anticipated by August 17, with a candidate needing to secure over 50% of the valid votes to prevent a run-off. According to Simakoloyi, “slight shifts” in support across provinces could be crucial.
This vote will also evaluate Zambia’s reputation as a politically stable nation amidst growing concerns over the suppression of dissent and the shrinking of political freedoms.
